Two of the biggest political parties in the country, the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and the United Democratic Alliance (UDA) are set to start formal talks aimed at forming a coalition ahead of the 2027 General Election. This is after both parties gave their leaders President William Ruto for UDA and Dr. Oburu Oginga for ODM party the green light to enter structured negotiations aimed at reaching a 2027 pre-election agreement.
As the ODM and UDA negotiations approach, political Analyst Wanja Maina says the engagement appears to be driven by pragmatism or survival rather than ideological convergence.
“UDA and ODM do not have very much in common. ODM has been there for 20, 21 years. They have been part of major milestones, in terms of democracy in the government in the country. UDA on the other hand, we don’t even know what their ideologies really are. So, for me, I would just say it’s pragmatism ahead of 2027. I know that ODM is very keen to be relevant, protect their base and also influence the things that are happening currently,” the analyst said.
On whether ODM is strengthening its bargaining position, or has been politically cornered, Wanja said it is a mix of both.
“On one hand, ODM is strengthening their bargaining position, and they are keeping multiple doors open and there are many signals. For instance, ODM is still part of Azimio. They have never left Azimio. Still inside of that same ODM there is a group of people who say they are in Government, the other group says they are not in Government. So, you can tell that the ODM is more or less in the grey area,” she told Hope Digital.
Commenting on the possibility of both parties fronting one presidential candidate in the 2027 general election, the political analyst said it is premature to conclude “they will have a single candidate”.
“We’ve seen people agreeing on candidates barely four months or five months to elections. So, it’s premature to conclude that they’ll have a single candidate. I find this kind of broad-based arrangement agreement to be tactical to manage the uncertainty,” Wanja noted.
Following the internal dynamics within ODM, especially disagreements over backing President Ruto, Wanja notes that this shows ODM will never be the same again moving forward.
“All those have, all those that have eyes can see that there are some major tensions inside of ODM. On one side, there are people who seem to be enthusiastic about the broad-based Government. On the other side, Sifuna and others are very strong around some misgivings of the current government. The long and short of it is that a lot is happening but, in the end, you can just tell that ODM will never be the same again,” the analyst said.
Kenyans are now waiting to see how the negotiations aimed at reaching a 2027 pre-election agreement will go.